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2009 UPDATE – OUR CURRENT SITUATION
This website reveals a sorry saga of failure
on behalf of governments and their agencies
to prepare for the effects of Peak Oil.
Background
From the mid-1950s onwards specialists in their fields gained a good understanding of resource depletion and environmental degradation, and gave ever more explicit warnings about the over-consumption of resources and the excessive consumption of energy. Many specialists predicted that the early years of the 21st century would witness Peak Oil (the maximum rate of extraction of the oil internationally) with the majority indicating the peak of conventional oil would occur between 2005 and 2010. Orthodox economic models – based on perpetual growth – fail if there is not an increasing supply of energy and resources. Oil is the linchpin of most transport systems and of the industrialized agricultural system. Without cheap and abundant oil most transport systems and industrialized food systems go into catastrophic failure mode. Oil is also the raw material for the production if a wide range of products ranging from household paint to shoes. A declining oil supply implies rising prices and shortages of many items that are currently taken for granted. The Hirsch Report of 2005 indicated that a 20 year period would be required to facilitate a smooth transition to an oil-independent economy. We now need to mobilise resources as if preparing for war. Governments around the world, including those of New Zealand, chose not to hear the message about imminent Peak Oil and continued to implement policies based on the flawed economic model of perpetual economic growth [on a finite planet] and the absurd notion that Peak Oil was so far into the future no preparation was needed for it.
Alas the people have been happy with this scheme of things, finding being lied to way more palatable than the truth.
Current situation (as of mid-2009)
Data indicates that the extraction of conventional oil peaked over the period 2005 to 2008 (much as predicted) and that the global economic system suffered an ‘energy shock wave’, which (in combination with fraudulent money creation) resulted in economic turmoil – falling house prices, company failures, rapidly rising unemployment, and collapsing economies. Despite the economic and environmental chaos that has already occur, governments continue to ignore the issue of Peak Oil and continue to promote economic growth, even though it is easily demonstrated to be a mathematical impossibility. (See Professor Albert Bartlett: Arithmetic Population and Energy). Governments and their agencies continue to mislead the general public into believing that alternative energy supplies and alternative raw materials will allow present economic and social arrangements to continue. For reasons explained in linked articles so-called alternatives will not come anywhere near to replacing current oil usage.
Future situation
At some stage in the near future declining energy availability is likely to completely derail the globalised economy and derail much of the industrialized food system. Leading to starvation and the death of millions. People will become increasingly dependent on locally obtainable resources, and community watch type law and order. Fiat currencies will become worthless. Major population centers will become violent hellholes to be avoided at all costs.
At some point in the near future we will witness the complete collapse of all the complex systems which make the current ‘civilization’ possible, e.g. the electricity grid.
There is a distinct possibility that desperate attempts to maintain current conditions will lead to ‘last man standing’ resource wars.
Failure to address carbon dioxide emissions will result in severe or abrupt climate change.
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