If the peak oil and fossil fuel depletion folks are anywhere near right, within a decade rising demand (i.e. China at around 14% per year) and falling supply (i.e. the losses in the Cantrell field in Mexico) WILL, absent a scientific miracle, prompt a return to "King Coal" and the associated greater pollution, and the short term benefit (long term danger) of fission reactors. This allows a short-term continuation of the status quo, followed by collapse if we've not used the time and resources to shift to a sustainable infrastructure and balanced population.

If the global warming sentinels such as Vice President Gore are correct, if we continue fossil fuel use, our "best case" scenario could be the global warming in his movie "An Inconvenient Truth", with the same need for a sustainable infrastructure and balanced population, but with an ecosphere more polluted and with lessened life-support capability.

Whether voluntarily now, or from exhaustion a few more polluted decades from now, the central theme is the end of the fossil fuel era, and all of infrastructure and aspects of civilization that are dependent on such.

ARE YOU PREPARED?

CONSERVATION

Minor conservation efforts such as driving a hybrid (I drive a Prius) may reduce your personal costs and allow you to divert the savings for greater personal changes, but they have virtually NO significance in the overall picture.

The oil I don't burn is bought and used by someone else, perhaps as farm chemicals. Virtually nothing we do today has any meaning if your goal is our children living as adults in a world still powered by oil.

In a manner of speaking, we are living in a theme park, what we experience as our life support infrastructure is no more real for the long-term than the experiences of an amusement park visit. No fossil fuel use is sustainable. No function based on such is sustainable. No economy based on fossil fuels is sustainable. No government program based on the economy of a fossil fueled society is sustainable.

Conservation does not remove the conundrum of embedded fossil fuels in our food, without which the industrial food infrastructure that feeds the present population fails.

In the big picture, we need to end all dependence on non-sustainable factors, STARTING with fossil fuels. As an example, if this country gets cut-off from foreign oil, in a matter of weeks virtually everything we see and experience as modern society will shut down. Is your personal "life support" and "security" arrangements ready for this?

No conservation measure for oil is going to make anything "better" unless it is linked to a program to end our addiction in the time the conservation programs allows. Absent such a link, conservation that merely provides "more of the same" prompts a larger and more dependent population, and portends a greater "hangover" to our oil party.

Unless you are, as Heinberg comments, "Waiting for the magic elixir", your children need to understand the scope of the situation and know how to obtain the essentials of life in a sustainable manner, and how to avoid the worst of the collapse that he and other peak oil advocates present.

Even if global population was in decline, draconian conservation methods may not allow for remaining fossil fuel use to continue long enough for global population to lower to sustainable levels. The transition period to a post-oil paradigm promises to be an unpleasant, dangerous time, during which individual survival may be difficult, and with a significant risk that civilization itself may be lost.

Fossil fuels represent an essentially nonrenewable resource of untold millions of year’s accumulation of energy, which our use destroys in a comparative blink of the eye.. In the manner we use much of it, we destroy other aspects of the environment. Burning it for energy is silly, but at least when we are forced to stop, the impact is not directly life threatening. Perhaps our greatest insanity is our use of fossil fuels as fertilizer, pesticides, and powering machines to greatly expand food production, and the population that has grown far beyond levels that can be sustained in an environmentally favorable manner on renewable resources.

POPULATION STABILITY – CENTRAL SUSTAINABILITY ISSUE

The problem with peak oil is not gas guzzling SUVs, diesels or two stroke engines spewing fumes, or the energy embedded in our food.

It's what we can do, what we have, and what can be sustained absent non-renewable resources. To those newly arrived to the concept of peak oil, and the realization of how dependent we are on the destruction of non-renewable resources…

You have taken the red pill offered by Morpheus, and "… you may not like how deep the rabbit hole goes…"

There are [6] roughly as many humans alive now as existed cumulatively throughout all of recorded history prior to the industrial revolution. That means that a large proportion of all the geniuses - and monsters - who have ever lived are alive today. Most of the modern infrastructure has been constructed in a single lifetime.

In the big picture, the world is NOT going to sustain 6+ billion people absent the green revolution crops (dependent on fossil fuel derived fertilizers and pesticides), the engines and machines that pump the groundwater (beyond renewal rate), plow the fields, process the food, etc.

No matter how bad we may think things could become, we must keep our heads, and teach our children to do the same. Hopefully, we will not reach a point where our government intrudes on family decisions. But short of affirmative limits being imposed, we can at least "lobby" for elimination of misguided incentive to expansion.

Communities [7] can slow their population growth by removing the many visible and hidden public subsidies that support and encourage growth. The Tragedy of the Commons (Hardin 1968) makes it clear that there will always be large opposition to programs of making population growth pay for itself… Those who profit from growth will use their considerable resources to convince the community that the community should pay the costs of growth. In our communities, making growth pay for itself could be a major tool to use in stopping the population growth…

But if you have done the right thing and turned your community into a permaculture paradise, there is still the question of how to you prevent your community from being overrun?

SCOPE OF THE OIL SITUATION – UNITED STATES EXAMPLED

For the moment the U.S. is the largest single nation oil consumer, with the highest average per person oil use. Let's look at the basic oil facts for the United States to try and start to put the situation in perspective.

The United States Department of Energy (DOE) estimates that in 2004 the continental U.S. remaining traditional oil supply was somewhat less than 22 billion barrels (BBL). The widely debated (whether to drill or not) Alaskan wilderness fields represent probably another 10 BBL. DOE also estimates that U.S. 2004 use was 7.5 BBL (elsewhere estimated at 10 BBL/Year).

The remaining domestic supply represents less than 3 years of present demand, but of course the remaining wells CANNOT be pumped fast enough to meet that demand. U.S. defense use is (2005) was estimated at around 123 million barrels per year (1% to 2% of total U.S. use), with 72% of such being in the form of jet fuel. The 2006 “Annual Energy Management Report” indicated the Pentagon used 116,800,000 barrels of petroleum, which is 1.1% of U.S. annual use.

If we just had to keep our military machines in operation, our (2006) remaining internal supplies could meet current military fuel needs for well over 100 years, but the supplies CANNOT operate any significant portion of the economy, including weapons construction, or even current food.

DOE indicates the U.S. only pumps 8% of our own use. Emergency measures might increase the pumping rate significantly, but it is doubtful it could even reach 50% of present use.

U.S. TIMELINE – WORST CASE

Posit that there is a 10 day supply of oil and fuels "in the pipeline" at any given time. Oil production (pumping rate) in the U.S. passed peak production in the early 1970’s, and has been in decline since then. If the U.S. gets cut off from foreign fuel supplies, in 10 days the commercial supply drops to about 8% of expected demand. With a slow decline we might have something like that for perhaps 20 years final exhaustion.

Food alone may represent 20%+ of the U.S. annual use. In a United States cut off from foreign oil, using present industrial farming, we might be able to feed 40% of the current population, which would preclude any internal use of oil to expand domestic production, or rework infrastructure for a solar economy. The U.S. is reported to have 4% of the remaining global supply. This puts the global supply at around 800 BBL.

We need to act to eliminate this dependency before an emergency is upon us.

GLOBAL DEPLETION

Recent (2004) global oil use approached 30 billion barrels (BBL) per year. 800/30 = 26 years (2030). Using more optimistic estimates of remaining useable supply, at recent consumption rates global oil supplies still may be exhausted before 2040. Even if you completely eliminated the U.S., the time for global depletion is only delayed by around 30%.

But of course, demand is not stable. In fact it rises every year. Perhaps the most significant factor is the expanding use in China. In 2004 China burned around 2.4 BBL, or about 8% of the annual global use. This was a 14% increase from 2003.

If every other nation on the Earth held their use to 2004 levels, and China increased yearly at their recent rates, depletion would occur around 2024. But long before depletion, we encounter the challenge of demand exceeding pumping rate.

FOSSIL FUEL VALUE IN PERSPECTIVE

When demand exceeds possible supply, expect prices to rise. A price / work comparison of oil in terms of human labor, perhaps pointless, but nevertheless presented: A human can work at around 75 watt per hour (256 BTU). In the U.S., minimum wage is something like $5.25 per hour. A gallon of fuel may be able to do 144,000 BTU of work, or around 562 hours of human labor.

At the U.S. minimum wage each gallon is doing the "work" of over $3,000 worth of human labor. Oil has annually provided in recent years energy to power civilization that is roughly equal to the dedicated labor of more than 50 billion slaves, who do not have to be feed, provided clothing, shelter, medical care, days off, etc.

There may be up to 1,200 billion barrels of oil left that can be usefully obtained. 1,200 billion barrels of oil is difficult to envision, but at this time it is what the infrastructure of present day civilization is dependent upon. To put this "best case" quantify of oil in perspective, how much would it be if it were already pumped out, and divided equally among everyone on the planet?
Your personal "best case" share, upon which you are betting the future of your children, grandchildren,, etc. would be around 7,600 gallons. Do you want your future dependent on the quantity of oil that fills an above ground swimming pool 5' deep and 16' in diameter?

BIG PICTURE   BEST CASE TIMELINE

The known available & remaining "fossil" alternatives, if energy is not used at any rate greater than 2005, put humanity in a timeframe that is essentially:

It can be argued that a sustainable global population can not exceed 1.2 billion, essentially what it was before the oil party started. Population demographics [8] are such that if a one child per couple guideline was rigorously followed, we might expect natural attrition to lower the population to 1.2 billion by 2087.

The real-world situation of course is that overall the population continues to grow. Despite the "bad press" absent immigration and pro-population growth government programs, the population in the United States would be stable or maybe in a slow decline, EXACTLY WHAT IS REQUIRED.

In contract China requires a new city the size of Philadelphia EVERY 30 DAYS.

ELIMINATE DEPENDENCY

Whether to avoid global warming, or due to effective depletion of fossil fuels, we will be forced to stop burning such. Look at what DOES NOT work without fossil fuels, or the ongoing input of fossil fuel derived molecules (such as pesticides and fertilizers), and start your own steps toward sustainability. The present global civilization evolved in a paradigm of continued growth in population and energy use, neither of which is logically sustainable. We need to look at what is needed for a sustainable civilization, starting our picture from the grass roots up.

PREPARATION

The more people who are aware and prepared in any emergency situation, the better the opportunity to reduce the overall impact and panic. Startled and frightened and/or angered and vengeful individuals will not be thinking clearly and acting rationally.

Each of us must shortly choose a new path, or we will be forced into one. Do you want to survive? Do you know what it takes to sustain yourself in a limited resource environment? A little knowledge, and a lot of enthusiasm, can go a long way.

Photosynthesizers are the basic energy source for any ecosystem, which is a complex web of living and non-living factors. These webs are not fixed, like parts of a machine, but the do eventually develop relative stable ranges of numbers of each member of the system. Despite our relative isolation in homes, and cities, humans must nevertheless be seen as PART of an ecosystem.

We need to recycle biomaterials, grow a diverse mix of crops in a multitude of micro environments, with hand cultivation to minimize soil disruption, with an aim to establishing a stable ecosystem.

Where are YOU going?

We can ignore depletion, and continue as we are, have good times until the fossil fuel era ends, and face whatever disaster is presented.

We can personally conserve, but if we do not build for the post oil paradigm, we miss out on the good times until the fossil fuel era ends, and face whatever disaster is presented.

We can personally conserve, and use "excess" resources to take advantage of the remaining time, cheap energy and materials, to step past the collapse, into the post-oil paradigm. For the present, it is still possible to "click", or make a phone call, and have services or supplies delivered. After the crash becomes widely apparent, it will probably be too late for individuals to afford significant preparations.

When do you need to act? Back in January 2004, Professor Kenneth S. Deffeyes, of Princeton University, jokingly predicted we would reach the half-way point for the remaining oil supply on November 24, 2005 (Thanksgiving Day). Using best available data, after the fact he has corrected himself. He calculates that we passed the half-way point on December 16, 2005.

We need to effectively and efficiently network and focus our distributed capabilities and resources to maximize all of our transition to a sustainable paradigm.

In the collapse of previous complex societies, when they were geographically isolated, individuals survived by dispersing into the wilderness, and foraging. There was however, always "civilization" elsewhere on the Earth. The collapse we face will essentially occur simultaneously worldwide.

There is not sufficient "wilderness" left between complex centers in which the present population could disperse. Clive Ponting, in "A Green History of the World" writes that a human population of around four million, achieved about 10,000 years ago, may be the maximum supportable by a hunter gatherer society, and that in the abundant wild of the time.

By around 1800, the limits of local, self-sufficient agriculture and fertile land were essentially reached, with a global population of less than 1 billion. Since that time, we have used, and abandoned many marginal farming areas, and in our chemical applications and one-way nutrient flow denigrated what might have otherwise been fertile fields.

In that a hunter-forager lifestyle, or even a return to animal powered and manured agriculture requires a GREATER area per person, they appears to be a guaranteed method to a large population dieoff, and perhaps a death-knell for the remaining wilderness.

EPIPHANY-SURVIVALISM – IS DEAD END THINKING

My initial reaction nearly a decade ago to awakening to more detail of our oil dependency was survivalist, with plans for a remote retreat. We purchased a little over 40 acres of remote desert land, and started putting in the necessary support for a remote homestead, essentially a survivalist retreat. It had been part of a cattle ranch, and came with and old windmill, water tanks, fencing, etc. as part of the old operation.

The area received more than 12" of rainfall per year, and had plenty of underground water not very deep. It also had plenty of mesquite trees, cactus, jackrabbits, coyote and snakes. From our highest hill, I could see the three plus miles to the nearest paved surface.

On a summer afternoon I was there alone investigating the property. Climbing one of our hills, at the top, my chest hurt. I reached for the cell phone to call for help, and had my epiphany.

Even if I dialed 911, and an ambulance was dispatched immediately, the coyotes could be munching on my remains long before an ambulance could travel the nearly 30 miles of paved road, then 6 miles of winding dirt to my location.

Our "Plan A" became an effort to locate, or create somehow if necessary, an appropriate community. Unless it is some well hidden "Galt's Gulch" wealthy retreat, there is no such community. Nor did I find a guide for what is essential from the grass roots approach, so I started writing and further research.

For those who MUST have some survivalist data, shield materials for gamma rays are expressed in terms of the thickness necessary to reduce the radiation intensity by one half the initial value. For a rule of thumb, 10 halving thicknesses should be planned for.

But survivalist bunkers, or disbursing the population precludes the interaction among people essential to maintain specialized technical skills and knowledge. In effect, I has hoping that I could run and hide, others "did something" to take care of the problem. Hiding may still be the best survival move, but in the bigger picture, it's a dead end.
Survival is an inherent aspect of ongoing life, but this treatise is not "survivalist" in nature.

PRESERVE A STABLE FOUNDATION

If you start immediately, while resources are still abundant, you may be able to create security for self, family, and community during the crash. Hopefully you can initiate or associate with a community structured to function in the new paradigm. It will be upon those who survive, with knowledge, skills, and abilities intact, who are well fed, with excess resources, to create a positive future for humanity, if there is to be one.

THE NEAR FUTURE

Heinberg presents in his book Powerdown essentially four positions regarding peak oil. Last man standing, waiting for the magic elixir, powerdown, and building lifeboats.
Governments by their nature tend toward the use of force to take what is wanted. It is probable that to AVOID a world at war, a collection of powers, probably “lead” by the U.S., must enforce a policy that nations will not fight over resources. It could mean maintaining military forces in oil areas for the duration of mankind’s dependency on oil.

There are those who are confident that new technological developments will make oil irrelevant, indeed, that oil companies have suppressed such developments. The conspiracy theorists may be right. We may indeed leapfrog the currently touted "hydrogen economy" into "STAR TREK" technology. While I do not expect this leap in our immediate future, I acknowledge there is potentially much science for us yet to learn, IF we can maintain functioning civilization, and act intelligently. A joke, which I've seen attributed to Iassic Asimov, is that perhaps supernova stars are not natural events after all, but rather alien civilizations who have an "industrial accident" with a zero point energy device.

Even if there is no explosive potential, each such device is a new source of surface heat. Imagine the effect of billions or trillions of them in operation. But until these devices are clearly demonstrated, we must act within available known technology, products and knowledge.

We can voluntarily reduce our resource demands, both in per person demand, and working toward a smaller population, or we can individually look to the battles of “last man standing”.

Beyond reducing resource demands, we can individually, and in expanding groups, re-work our own lives to eliminate our dependency on non-renewable resources.

COPING WITH AWAKENING

We sincerely appear to be approaching a crossroad, where we will have to choose between business as usual, leading to a collapse of civilization, and voluntarily changing our infrastructure and lifestyle to one that provides for continued and sustainable development.

Perhaps we should apply Dr. Kubler-Ross' 5 stages of grief, to humanities present global situation.

The first stage is denial. "There's plenty of oil"… or food… or water… or room on the planet…

Next comes anger or resentment. "Who did this!" or "We've been set up!".

The third stage is bargaining. "If I can just make it to retirement", or "…get the kids thru college", or "If we impose taxes… or rationing… we can…" delay the obvious outcome, and sooth ourselves by not having to think about it now.

The fourth stage is depression. A population sustainable absent non-renewable input and the present infrastructure is MUCH smaller than alive today, no visible program of conservation allows supplies to be stretched to match any "natural" population reduction, and extensive conservation would cause economic collapse of the infrastructure. There is no apparent "safe" landing for most of the planet.

Finally comes acceptance. You can't save the world. You may not be able to save yourself and your family. Any effort may be futile, but do you elect to do nothing, or calmly analyze what is needed for the future after the crash?

Envisioning a high tech, complex civilization from the top down is an incredible challenge. So don't try to.

WHAT TO DO UNTIL THE LAST DROP

While our challenges are global in scope, there is no readily apparent big-picture or top-down solution. Everything from our pollution of the air & water, unsustainable food systems, dependence on “mining” of even fossil water, emphasizes that the solutions need to be implemented starting at the most basic levels in order for the bigger picture to be one of comprehensive, effective, and lasting solutions, such as are appropriate to the local conditions.

You can complain about the situation, and demand someone act, or you can take personal initiative and responsibility, get your own house in order, and serve as an example and guide to others. You can seed a grass-roots effort to redevelop and rebuild your community.

The post-Katrina events in New Orleans included expected riots, theft, and assaults. The complex and expensive infrastructure and controls of the city, and larger governmental entities, failed. There were also though instances of people banding together for protection and mutual support. You must get beyond coping, and act.

1. Accept that oil, and other fossil fuels are a finite resource. Accept they are, and will continue to be burned. Not only can't you stop it, our infrastructure is so dependent that stopping the burning and other fossil fuel uses could trigger for the crash of civilization.

2. Don't feel "guilty" about your personal use of fossil fuels, BUT take prompt steps to lessen and "ASAP" eliminate your DEPENDENCE on such. (Including your dependence on the fossil fueled infrastructure)

3. Select your personal vision of what an oil depletion (and depletion of our other finite resources) scenario looks like, and act accordingly. If you expect World War III, head for the hills, build and stockpile a bunker. If you expect the continued stress of products and services being priced out of the marketplace due to rising cost of depleting resources, plan ahead to live without them and look for alternatives.

4. Wherever you intend to call home, make it such that home can be livable without the need for constant input of fuel or outside energy. Take up the hobby of gardening now. Learn what you can grow in your area, and get accustomed to a diet from your own crops.

5. The job market, good and services, income and therefore tax base are not going to resemble what we see today.

6. What do you need to consider, and to, to create a personal home and local post crash community?

CIVILIZATION AS A CONCEPT

Civilization implies a greater range of knowledge, opportunities, and types of challenges then is applicable to a family or village scale association. There is physical security. There is the opportunity to specialize. There is greater opportunity to express creativity. There is the opportunity to preserve the knowledge and creations of the past, and build upon them. Civilization relies not only on the physical presence of essentials, but on the circular argument of confidence in civilization.

Civilizations tend to develop around a centralizing philosophy, agreed upon law and discipline, with a sense of stability and permanence, with physical construction well integrated and meant to last. But civilization can be fragile, fractured by irrational fear, loss of hope and vision for the future, or even by boredom.

Civilization tends to bring with it though seeds [9] of its own destruction, such as layers of government and organized religion, self proclaimed elite, and it tends to decay into mob rule, or rule by physical force. We see forced labor or taxation to fund projects or programs that aggrandize the leadership, but provide no practical improvement. Can we achieve the benefits of a complex civilization, attained by mutual respect and voluntary agreement? What about resisting those who initiate force?

The skill and will to fight, as well as the tools to do so are essential for preservation of civilization. Peaceful, non-technical civilizations tend to be over-run by those who see it as their right or duty to initiate force, and by those with the technology to overcome such resistance that can be presented. Realistically also, at the individual level those who abdicate personal responsibility, whether for the basics of life, responsibility for their actions, etc., are taking steps toward empowering an oppressive hierarchy.
A Sustainable Civilization is one where the needs of the present are met without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. It is one where there are feedback loops, physical and mental, personal, family, and societal which keep in check population growth and resource use.

MASLOW

In his hierarchy of needs theory Maslow more eloquently states the logic that gasping, dehydrated, starving humans are not focused on esoteric aspects of civilization. Underlying needs must be met first.

1. Physical
2. Safety
3. Love/Belonging
4. Esteem
5. Actualization

1. Do you have under your control or ownership the means to meet:

• the need to breathe
• the need for water
• the need to eat
• the need to dispose of bodily wastes
• the need for sleep
• the need to regulate body temperature

2. Safety concerns come to the forefront once physical needs are met. These include:

• Physical Security & Safety from Violence
• Security of Revenues and Resources
• Moral and physiological security
• Familial security
• Security of health

3. Love/Belonging needs. After physical and safety needs are fulfilled, the social level involves human emotions and the need to be accepted and to belong, generally at a level beyond that of the immediate family.

4. Esteem needs. Humans have a need to be respected, to self-respect and to respect others. People need to engage themselves in order to gain recognition and have an activity or activities that give the person a sense of contribution and self-value.

5. Self-actualization is the need of a person to make the most of their unique abilities and to strive to be the best they can be. Imagine the potential of a city of a million self-actualized individuals who:

• Embrace the facts and realities of the world rather than denying or avoiding them.
• Are spontaneous in their ideas and actions.
• Are creative.
• Are interested in solving problems.
• Solving these problems is often a key focus in their lives.
• Feel a closeness to other people, and generally appreciate life.
• Have a system of morality that is fully internalized and independent of external authority.
• Judge others without prejudice, in a way that can be termed objective.

No one person, or small group, is going to have all of the skills, knowledge, and opinions we need to get to a sustainable community, or even a definitive place to start. It all starts with an exchange of ideas, success and failure stores, and resources. Energy and resource surety at the community level is essential, but at the present is lacking.

Our government and private sector institutions were created and developed in an era of cheap energy and continued expansion. This either has, or will shortly end. These institutions, and those individuals working for, or benefiting from such, can be expected to balk at the functioning end of their empire.

BIOMIMICRY

In Biomimicry, Janie M. Benyus presents 10 "Lessons" humans need to learn, not only as individuals but as a civilization. Nature evolves complex systems, with every niche filled with life, that are "run" by multiple and overlapping feedback loops.

Consider a blade of grass. A single seed can, even if surrounded by a hostile environment; self assemble from the bottom up. The blade of grass serves as a pioneer and life support system for other plants and creatures, each of which contributes to the development of a micro environment, each with natural feedback loops to monitor and check growth.

If non-thinking creatures can act in relative symbiosis to weave a multi layer, multi purpose, season adaptable physical environment, with little energy or resources lost, resistant to outside disturbance, can we learn to:

1. Use waste as a resource.
2. Diversify and cooperate to fully use the habitat.
3. Gather and use energy efficiently
4. Optimize rather than maximize
5. Use materials sparingly
6. Don't foul their nests
7. Don't draw down resources
8. Remain in balance with the biosphere
9. Run on information
10. Shop locally

Y2K

The late 1990's awoke many to potential infrastructure vulnerabilities related to Y2K computer problems. We are now in the early states of weaknesses showing in the energy infrastructure, upon which all other core infrastructures are dependent.

Y2K became for the most part a "non-incident" due to the pro-active cures put in place prior to the date-certain "catastrophic" event. While an energy crash is not date certain, its existence is certain.

The objective reality is that the community must become self-reliant at least in all of the essentials of life for the relevant local population.

Our sustainability challenge may also have high technology, and social components, but if physical essential are not met we won't get to these.

GET A CUP OF COFFEE

Feedback to earlier versions of this treatise included that it does not provide clear guidance on how to build a particular type of home, organize a neighborhood, etc. So, to clarify to new readers in advance, this is not a blueprint, nor is it a step-by-step set of instructions as to how to put together a homestead, or organize a community.

There are many self-help books, and free materials on the web (for now) such that any detailed area you might need to investigate for self improvement or self reliance is readily available. Most of these materials though are on survivalist, or isolated primitive homesteads, not addressing the larger picture of avoiding, or minimizing the collapse of civilization. This treatise is intended to present a different picture than survivalism, or a “back to the land” approach. The author hopes to spark not only self reliance in the essentials for personal and family safety, but also to inspire networks where warranted, and contemplation of a philosophy of “enlightened self interest”.

I have been asked if/when I might publish a guide such as this. The ten chapters of this treatise, and the various appendices, are all available free on the web. If you cannot find them, email the author and I will send you the latest versions.

This is intended to get people to think, and for those new to facing the sobering reality of how far from sustainability we are, to present some information so you do not have to re-invent the wheel. This is intended to prompt YOU to take your first steps, and wake up others.

Tell me, I forget.
Show me, I remember.
Involve me, I understand.

– Ancient Chinese

A thought experiment: The evening before your next day off, BEFORE the sun sets, make a steaming thermos of your favorite hot beverage, and set the thermos outside. Arrange it so you will wake up with the sunrise. Turn off your utility provided power, water, gas, phone, cable, etc.

Envision the flow of, and benefits derived from fossil fuels have ended, as they sometime must. Are you safe for the night? Can you provide a meal for your family for the following day? For a week? What about your sewage?

We need to have appropriate steps taken, and changes made, at every level. The human infrastructure IS our "natural" ecosystem, most of us just don't realize it. The problems we face are global in scope. The important life support solutions are however local in nature.

We must be the change we want to see.

– Ghandi

If you will indulge a personal peeve, while you've got your television "disconnected" from the babble of broadcast or cable, leave it disconnected. Break the addition to the useless drawl. Talk with your family and friends. Read and research. Sit and think.

This writing is an accumulation of notes and thoughts by someone for whom the challenges of long-term sustainability have been a long term concern. Check the facts presented, and my math, and make your own conclusions, and plans. With hard work, and some luck, we may avoid the worst.

The paradigm of cheap abundant oil is dying, as will be the entire infrastructure dependent on such. You must think and act for the long term, starting with the basics.

Chapter I – Your Homestead And Essential Life Support

Most of what is found in a modern home, and the way we live, developed in an era of cheap abundant energy what seemed to be unlimited resources. All of this is ending.

What are the minimums you need to have a secure means to put water in your glass, food on your table, and shelter for your family which are not dependent on having someone else provide it for you?

INTRODUCTION

It is often indicated that many families live "paycheck to paycheck", meaning any financial disruption could spell disaster.

"They say that every society is only three meals away from revolution. Deprive a culture of food for three meals, and you'll have an anarchy."

– Rimmer, Red Dwarf

While a quote from a British science fiction - comedy is hardly a definitive argument, if you think about it, it does ring true. After only one full day of missed meals, most people are quite different than if safe and well-fed.

For your household, does a loss of income mean foregone luxuries, or does it mean you don't eat?

Can you obtain from your home, or within waling distance the essential "Life Support" for you and your family? For how long, a day? A week? A month? A year? How dependent are you on what may be a failing infrastructure?

If you must obtain essential life support from non-owned resources, how do you plan to compensate those you barter with? Are those outside sources realistically large enough to provide the same level of subsistence to everyone else who is within walking distance?

THINK LONG TERM

On realization of the scope of our overextended situation, often-repeated early reactions are to stock up and hide, or run to the wilderness and live off the land until things return to normal.
There are many sources for emergency preparedness planning, lists for “bug out” bag contents, etc. readily available. While these have application, such short-term planning is not the concept of this treatise.

Civilization such as we perceive as normal cannot continue. If you run for the hills, intending to be a hunter/gatherer, you will need a greater area than if you have a home garden providing your needs, and you will probably only have such possessions as you can carry.

You must not only be able to survive the crash, but continue afterward. The future needs capable, educated, experienced people who survive the crash healthy, well nourished, with resources intact. Starving people do not build, or rework infrastructure and civilization. Starving people are not in a position to show others a better way.

Absent the energy and infrastructure which has allowed large scale movement (numbers and distance), we can expect families to once again remain in the same area, probably multi generations living on the same homestead. Depending on ages, moving on marriage, childbearing age, etc. a stable multi-generation family homestead may be expected to house about 8 or 10 residents.

The purpose this “homestead" discussion is at the level of the individual/family to provide what is needed for basic life support needs without the necessity to constantly receive input from what may be a civilization in chaos. Whether you head for the hills, or remain in town, you “life support” needs are essentially the same.

For now there is much that can be done at relatively low cost to not only prepare for an economic crash, but to leapfrog past it to a post-oil paradigm. Once a crisis begins, it may be too late.

That said, there is also the warning about what you own, or intend to buy or install: Can you repair or replace it on your own? I offer myself as an example, although this book is written on a computer, if the computer malfunctions, I must seek qualified assistance, because I admit I do not understand the electronics or the programming.

There is a scientific minimum for the growing area for your food, depending on your climate and crops.

An earth-sheltered home (thermal battery/mass heat storage & moderation of temperature extremes) can protect your family from the extremes of climate without external utility connections. A "green roof" avoids “wasting” the sunlight over your living space.

Add water collection / storage / recycling, a bio- intensive garden, and appropriate technology, and you've set up an appropriate micro-environment, which should be able to continue indefinitely.

Whether you intend to head for the hills, or re-engineer a home in the city, what do you need to consider in your planning?

PHYSICAL PRIORITY I – AIR
Critical for survival much beyond 3 minutes.

Living away from likely sources or flows of contamination would seem to be the simplest option. In reality you CANNOT live away from the pollution.

"We're all breathing each other's air," [10] says Daniel J. Jacob, a Harvard professor of atmospheric chemistry and one of the chief researchers in a recent multinational study of transcontinental air pollution. He traced a plume of dirty air from Asia to a point over New England, where samples revealed that chemicals in it had come from China.

If you want to take steps to eliminate the pollution from China, then stop buying products from there… if you can.

Rationally an essential step is that YOU and your neighbors not pollute. In air pollution there are of course multiple factors, such as substance, volume, and quantity. To elaborate, envision the Los Angeles valley on a clear calm Saturday afternoon. If one family decides to have a backyard charcoal cookout the neighborhood gets some smoke, but the effect on the city is insignificant. If every family does a cookout at the same time the air could quickly become foul.

It matters greatly what polluting substance is being released, how much each source is releasing, and how many sources there are. In general, the greater the standing population, the worse you can expect any pollution problem.

There's not much you as an individual can do about “open-air” contamination, other than NOT produce it yourself. (Remember that “outside” is a relative term; the Earth itself is for all practical purposes a CLOSED container.) You need to be in a sealed container…suit, home, building, etc., with an appropriate combination of air volume, renewal (O₂ / CO₂), and purification capabilities.

Indoor air quality in a relatively well sealed home can however be affected significantly, by relatively simple actions.

First and foremost, avoid contamination in the first place. Many of the adhesives and artificial materials used in present contractor construction of homes outgas dangerous substances, often continuously, and especially when they burn.

In that items such as particle board, plywood, many household chemicals, etc. release hazardous gases, avoid these inside your home.

Radon seepage from the ground may be a significant indoor threat readily abated during construction by proper sealing and venting.

 

BIOREMEDIATION

Appropriate selection of indoor plants can significantly improve air quality. (See Dr. Bill Wolverton's "How to Grow Fresh Air") Examples include Boston Fern, Janet Craig (fern), Rhododendron, as well as Dracaena marginata, English Ivy, Warneckel, Peace lily, Chrysanthemum, Gerber daisy, dwarf date palm, bamboo palm, Warneckel, areca palm, Chrysalidocarpus, Lutescens, and Phoenix roebelenii.

Short of specific plant selection, the microbes in soil perform a great deal of the "work" transforming waste materials into productive life. The Biosphere II project used a “soil reactor” to clean the inside air, as does the author of the book "Soliva". The basic concept is simply forcing air to the interior thru several feet of healthy soil.

With sufficient plants growing in a closed greenhouse, a breathable interior atmosphere can be maintained with essentially no active air exchange with the outside. Note, if the plants are only producing oxygen during photosynthesis, there must be a large enough volume of air and plants for 24+ hours of clean air to be produced during the shortest available sunlight period, and some allowance for overcast days.

 

STERILIZATION

Ultraviolet light readily penetrates air, and even clouds. It, and ozone (ionized oxygen) are part of God's open-air germ control system. There may be lenses and surfaces which allow just ultraviolet light to be concentrated, and used for specific sterilization purposes. (TO BE DEVELOPED) If you have technology and power, readily available are u/v systems for desktop, portable, or installation in building vent systems, to keep levels of microorganisms down.

 

CARBON DIOXIDE

We as a living animal inhale, use some of the oxygen from air, and exhale increased CO₂ levels. Starting from less than 1% in "fresh" air, the upper "safe" CO₂ level is around 3%. When the concentration exceeds 3%, even though there is still oxygen in the air, humans are adversely affected. An average person produces around .67 cubic ft. (5 gallon volume) per hour of CO₂. Burning of course produces MUCH MORE CO₂.

In a sealed container, starting with good outside air, a person can survive for about an hour for every 22.5 cubic feet of air (about 1 cubic yard, around 168 gallon). A 1200 sq.ft home, with 7 foot ceilings, should hold about 8400 cubic feet of air, or enough for a family of four for 3+ days.

Any steadily growing plant absorbs CO₂. NASA experiments show that around one cubic meter of wheat, growing constantly under artificial light, can balance the CO₂ for a single person. Other experiments show that approximately 8 gallons of well aerated algae does the same job.

Some plants such as cacti, aloe vera, etc. produce oxygen in the dark, vs the light. Note though, regardless of the oxygen generating plant, once parts of the plant starts to die, you MUST eliminate the dead portions from your sealed area, otherwise the decay organisms consuming the dead plant matter will re-release the CO₂.

 

COMPENSATING FOR ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE VARIATION

An airtight home must have a flexible lung (see Biosphere II) to allow internal and external air pressure to remain equal, without actual exchange of air. It can be as simple as a large trash bag on one end of a pipe that penetrates a wall. Typical atmospheric pressure changes do to weather may amount to 2% to 5% of the volume of the sealed container. If you have a 1200 ft. sq. home (above), the "lung" should be between 168 and 420 cubic feet. (Don't panic, that's only a box 8 foot on each side max) The device must account not only for the pressure changes due to weather, but from heating and cooling of the air inside the sealed area.

Unless you are absolutely certain of the sealing of your structure, you'll want a means of maintaining a slightly higher pressure in the home than outside. You can consider a small fan, or even an aquarium pump, to force some small flow of air thru a filter. Consider two closed containers of water connected by a hose, where water running from the higher to lower container causes suction on a hose leading out of the top of the top container, to the filter.

If your area is subject to continued air quality problems, you may want a larger area then mere living space, such as including your shop, and greenhouse area.

 

PHYSICAL PRIORITY II – WATER
Critical for survival much beyond 3 days

In some areas water is simply not a concern. Where it is, your home should contain a cistern capable of holding at a minimum the survival (drinking, cooking, and minimal cleaning) water for your family for a year. Using the low typical rainfall for your area, calculate the collection area needed to fill your cistern from rainfall. All rainwater not directly collected for controlled storage should be routed to a collection area for recharging the aquifer. If paving for walkways, patio's, etc. is not intended to be used to route rainwater for collection, where practical the surfaces should be porous to allow the water to soak into the ground.

Rain (in many places) may be the safest "natural" water available, and the least subject to human interference. (Flowing water, wells, pipelines, etc., are all of course subject to "blockages", or contamination, somewhere "upstream".) Even if living in a relatively isolated area, all of the water sources could be contaminated. In the case for example of groundwater, it may be decades after a "spill", that took place quite in the distance, before the effluent starts to contaminate the water.

Similarly, for upstream surface flowing water, abandoned sites may start to leak in the future.

Access to water, in many places, will be a significant restriction as to how many people can sustainably occupy a given area. Estimating 7 gallons per cubic foot, every inch of rainfall on a square foot is about 1/2 gallon that could be collected.
The percent of any given rainfall that actually reaches your cistern will vary depending on conditions present. A light sprinkle might soak into a built up tar roof, tile, etc. Even a metal roof will have some water adhere to it. If your roof is hot, you will lose water to evaporation. For ballpark loss estimates, use 5% for metal, 10% for built up tar, and 20% for gravel roof surfaces.

Assuming annual rainfall of 12 inches, and assuming personal direct one-time thru water use of around 20 gallons per day, a collection area of about 1042 sq. ft. (say a square 33 ft. per side) could provide for one person.

Add in one-time thru water use in a biointensive yet open-air garden, and you need to plan on a collection area of around 6500 sq.ft. (an area 80 ft. on a side) to provide around 45,000 gallons per year, which should meet the needs of an individual with comparably liberal water use. While collectors can be artificial surfaces, they can also be part of the landscape (i.e. rock hillsides). A family of four would need a collection area 160 ft. on a side. A multigeneration homestead of 8 to 10 people would need aa collection area of 52,000 to 65,000 sq.ft, or an area from 228 to 254 feet on a side.

I use the term "one-time thru" to prompt thinking of multiple / reuse of water. Consider for an "extreme" example the Biosphere II facility, where the same water has essentially been in enclosed re-use for several years. The Earth is, after all, just a big yet closed system.

See the Appropriate Technology Appendix for expanded discussion on obtaining and managing water, including atmospheric condensers, and application of other simple concepts useful to sustain a higher standard of living in the absence of our present high energy globally connected infrastructure.

 

EXAMPLES OF WATER USE

20 gallon/day human cooking/consumption, bathing (5 min low flow shower)
(x365= 7300)
+105 gallon/day garden (adjusted for cleaning/bathing graywater use)
125
x365
45,625 Average annual water per person
Basis of personal 20 gallon water estimate. Five minute low-flow shower (2.5 gpm=12.5 gallon), up to several gallons per day drinking/cooking, and several gallons in misc. washing.

Basis of garden water estimate. Every linear foot of "soaker hose" waters plants in the two square feet along its sides. To water a 1,000 ft. sq. area of crops requires 500 linear feet of soaker hose. Soaker hose releases water at 1 gallon/minute/100 foot. 500 foot of soaker hose would release 5 gallons per minute.

The area shown above had been cement-hard compacted desert soil when we arrived. With appropriate mulching, even in the hot summers of Yuma, Arizona, (plants exposed to direct sunlight) our garden survived with two 12 minute soaks per day. A subsistence garden should get by with 120 gallons per day (15 or so of which could be washing "gray water").

More precise watering (drip irrigation) of individual plants, or a buried reservoir with an airspace between the water and the soil above (semi-hydroponic - see the "Earthbox", or controlled microenvironments) may lead to further reductions in crop water use.

 

LIGHT INTENSITY & WATER USE

Most plants can only make use of 1/4 to 1/2 of the "candlepower" that impacts their leaves in the summer, much above this level actually slows growth and results in heat, which the plant must shed by evaporating "extra" water. In one test pad, where plants were put under 60% shade cloth near the end of the summer, THOSE plants suddenly grew much larger than plants in direct sun. This might lead to a lowered estimate of the water consumption, or greater production. (see Israeli experiments as touched on in the MESS appendix)

 

WATER PURIFICATION

Plan on the need to clean your water supply.

Probably the oldest water treatment method is filtering through 3 to 5 feet of sand, which will remove many microorganisms, most debris, and most radioactive fallout. (Consider what nature does in the soil, as water seeps downward toward your well.) As this filter ages, a gelatinous layer forms near the top. While this contains numerous good bacteria, the top of your filter needs to be cleaned off and replaced regularly.

Using standard plumbing parts, glass, etc., it should be possible to assemble a solar still that would provide pure, distilled water.

As touched on above in air sterilization, ultraviolet can be used to kill microorganisms in water.

 

SILVER IONS

Ancient wisdom, supported by microbiological studies, is that silver ions kill microorganisms. Simply storing silver in water helps. Running a small DC current (i.e. from a cheap solar battery charger) through two silver electrodes submerged in the water distributes the ions and is said to make the water a disinfectant.

 

WATER STORAGE

The size of the cistern you should have is dependent on the patterns of your water use, and rainfall collection. Too small, and your tank will overflow during a "good" rainfall. Too big, and you've wasted space and money. For example, if you rainfall and water needs are essentially the same month to moth, the largest tank you probably need is enough to hold 1/12 of the annual rainfall. If your rain all comes in one monsoon month, you need to be able to store the entire years supply.

If you cannot obtain or construct a true watertight tank, note that sand will store water about 50% of its bulk. In sand, it is possible to store water [11] without it evaporating. You can for example dig a hole, line it with plastic, and fill it up with sand. The water in between the sand grains is is less likely to evaporate than in an open air pond.

 

ATMOSPHERIC CONDENSERS

(Creating and collecting "dew") Have you ever taken a predawn walk thru a grassy field, and gotten your feet soaked, even though it did not rain during the night? The grass radiates heat to a clear sky, cooling, while still surrounded by moisture, or with moisture containing air blowing over it, which condenses on the cooler grass.

There are what appear to be the remains of large ancient condensers, such as a pile of rocks, on insulation, with catch basins and pipes leading out at the base. (See Appropriate Technology appendix.) Even the cooling system referred to as "earth tubes" contemplates moisture removed from the cooled air.

 

PHYSICAL PRIORITY III – FOOD
Critical for survival much beyond 3 weeks

If the grocery store shelves are empty, you can’t get there, or you can’t afford to make a purchase, what’s in your garden? Do you think that you can afford NOT to have one?

Industrial farming, overgrazing, etc. has stripped the soil of many essential nutrients and killed off the soil life which in “healthy” soil perform a great deal of the "work" transforming waste materials, and even inert rock dust, into a form which can be used by your crops.

Live as though there is no tomorrow, but farm as though you will live forever.

North African Bedouin proverb

The obvious goal in gardening is to create the ideal condition for each plant, of light, heat, moisture, air (roots and leaves), and nutrients. That which is taken from the soil [12], must be returned. Can we undo our damage, yet "tilt" micro-ecosystems toward producing crops that meet our needs? (Not necessarily our WANTS.)

A detailed discussion of optimal growing conditions and crop planning is in the appendix "Micro Environment Sustainability System" (MESS).

 

SEEDS

One of the most valuable projects you might undertake could be collection and preservation of seeds. Hybrid crops will not do well without the chemical fertilizers and pesticide protection, and they generally WILL NOT breed true, that is you cannot keep seeds from your hybrid crops and expect the plants next season to be the same. (I read it takes six generations of back breeding for a new trait to stabilize.

Find the sources for open pollinated crops that fit your needs, and get the seeds now. If you're not growing now (why not) rotate your storage seeds. Keep the seeds dry, cool, and of course secure from pests.

 

CUBA AND POST OIL SUSTAINABILITY

The "success" in sustainable farming reported for semitropical Cuba is about 1/4 to 1/3 of an acre per person. My personal experience is that "traditional" backyard gardening would take the same, around 10,000 sq.ft. (1/4 acre) per person. China sustains what we in the U. S. would consider a starvation level diet on .2 acre (about 8,700 ft. sq.). Most of the world does not have even this area of productive cropland. You need to do better.

 

BIOINTENSIVE GARDENING

An excellent intensive gardening resource is John Jeavons, and Ecology Action. Their presentation of the "biointensive" bed system projecting feeding a person out of 1,000 sq.ft., is among the best commercially available. (The Biosphere II project officially had about 1300 ft.sq. of garden per each of the 8 scientists, but they also had the entire 3+ acre dome.)

For the full benefit, the entire Ecology Action "system" must be used. While the biointensive beds create among the most efficient natural growth mediums, the necessary time (years for the miniature ecology to mature) and energy investment (i.e. for the double digging) means you should initiate work on this valuable long-term asset immediately.

Note, in a 2002 personal discussion with a member of Running on Empty (www.runningonempty.org), Mr. Jeavons commented that a larger area may be needed, perhaps up to 4,000 sq.ft. if conditions are not carefully monitored and controlled. (See MESS appendix)

You need to investigate crops that are appropriate for your specific area, needs, and tastes, with a general goal is to grow the largest amount of calories and nutrition in the smallest area / smallest use of resources.

 

AQUAPONICS

This is a combination of a fish tank/pond and a garden. The tank water is circulated through the garden, which fertilizes the garden, and cleans the water for collection and pumping back to the fish. (See reports from the "New Alchemy Institute" from back in the 1970's.

 

ALGAE

With ideal growing conditions, the mass of live algae in a tank can double every 24 hours. I’ve read accounts of spirulina or tredici being grown in clear tubes, with relatively fast flowing water, alternating in sun exposure and a cooling bath. (Yes, I've found I can grow spirulina in the alkaline water I get by flushing "fresh" water thru our local sand… It is supposedly healthy, but I've yet to acquire the taste…) That said, the rapid growth of algae provides the opportunity for production of animal feed/supplement or "biological waste" for composting to enrich the soil.

 

AEROPONICS

NASA funded research (i.e. aeroponics - roots suspended in a mist of nutrients), has implications of feeding a person from 22.5 sq. Meters (about 16' on a side or 256 ft. sq.) Their research though has focused on special crops tailored for a narrow range of closely controlled living conditions.

Their high-tech approach makes reliance in a crisis situation questionable, but provides insight into what is possible. If adapted to readily repairable & reproducible appropriate technology and used with hardier crops it would be a very valuable art. (Consider if you replaced the roof area of a "typical" home with such a garden, which could feed a family of four living below.)

 

CONTAINER GARDENING

The commercial product "Earthbox" (registered tradename) claims significant improvement over random soil or mere containers, perhaps offering production between biointensive, and the NASA approach.

Their patented container appears to be nearly identical to non-circulating methods shown in various technical and non-technical [13] hydroponics and aeroponics books, which is to provide the plant roots with unlimited access to water, nutrients, and air, without drowning or suffocating them.

The earlier textbooks show 1" to 3" of soil held on a grid, over a 1/2" to 3" air space, over water maintained in steady depth of 1" to 3".

The water depth must be carefully maintained. While plant roots CAN grow into water, if left exposed to the air, these roots not only dry out, but in 1 to 3 days, change, irreversibly, from water absorbing to air breathing roots. After the change, if re-submerged, the root drowns, and kills the plant.

There are various approaches which appear to offer benefits similar to still water hydroponics [14] on a larger scale. Consider a waterproof layer, covered with a wicking material, then 3" to 6" of compost (not soil, for lighter weight, and better nutrition). A method such as an upside down jar of water is used to keep the wick wet. These beds could be put on a flat roof, or layer of concrete.

 

FORAGING

If you don’t (yet) have a garden, perhaps you are tempted to go grazing. Be certain of what you're doing, as a small bite of certain plants is enough to kill an adult. Also though, consider this as potential protection for your food crop. If it doesn't look like a garden, and doesn't look like normal vegetables, perhaps anyone encountering it, will leave it alone. Hunter/forager societies are estimated to have required a square mile to support each individual.

 

LEAF AND GRASS CONCENTRATE

There is a safer way of grazing, with many edible leaves, (grasses, vines, bushes, and trees) and more that can be used to produce an edible product when the excess fiber is removed. You can even use dried leaves, making this a valuable survival art.

Dried Leaves. When leaves are brittle, remove coarse stems and grind to a fine powder. Dried leaves can be easily ground in a variety of ways. Make sure leaves are very dry or they will clog the grinders. About 20% of the flour in most recipes can be replaced with leaf powder.
Experiments with how much leaf powder you can add to recipes without an unacceptable effect on flavor or texture. About one tablespoon or more of leaf powder can be taken directly daily. Keep the leaf powder in a well sealed container, away from light and in a cool place.

Fresh Grass / Leaves. Making Leaf Concentrate at Home [15]. Wash and cut leaves into pieces 2 - 3" long, use only fresh green leaves known to be edible, such as alfalfa, Swiss chard, lambsquarters, blackeye peas, wheat, mustard, kale, or collards. Grind the leaves to a pulp to rupture the cell walls of the leaves liberating protein and other nutrients.

Press as much juice as possible from the pulped leaves, and pour the pulped leaves into a sheer nylon or polyester cloth of the type used for curtains. Squeeze out as much juice as possible. You should not be able to squeeze any juice out of a handful of this pulp when you are done.

Heat the juice rapidly to the boiling point, stir very gently to prevent burning and remove from heat as soon as the leaf juice boils. A green curd should float to the top. Separate the curd that forms in the heated juice in a closely woven cloth. When this wet curd has cooled, squeeze the "whey" out of the curd. It should be dry enough to crumble.

You may want to make a press to apply more pressure than you can with just your hands. This can be used for pressing the juice from the pulped leaves as well.

What remains in the cloth is leaf concentrate. 10 lbs. of leaves should give you roughly 1/2 lb. leaf concentrate; 4 1/2 lbs. of fiber for mulch, compost, rabbit or goat feed; and 5 lbs. of "whey" for watering plants. If not used right away, leaf concentrate can be dried at about 120 F, ground to a fine powder, and stored for later use in airtight plastic bags away from any light.

 

FOOD STORAGE

The present, relative abundance of food, and secure supplies, is a hollow shell, that will collapse when oil ceases to support it. When you are once again dependent on your own garden, or local farms, crop failure can literally mean starvation if you can not daily pick the 2,000 calories needed.
Residents of "First World" nations have become accustomed to minimal physical work, and high calorie intake. While both of these are ending, it may not necessarily be all bad-news. Studies have shown that low calorie diets, IF the food is otherwise high in vitamin/nutrient content, can result in a longer and healthier lifespan.

If you have the money, high-tech (high cost) freeze dried foods are available, with shelf lives of 20 years or so. Good backup for a crash induced emergency, and there are distinct short term advantages for concealment by avoiding the need to garden, but when they are gone, they are gone.

A example from the web of a homegrown food storage to provide around 730,000 calories per person is:
325 lb. Grain	(i.e. whole wheat, pasta, oats, rice, barley, several years)
80 lb. Legumes	(various beans, peas, lentils, seeds, etc., 5 to 10 years)
50 lb. Milk/dairy/eggs	(dried, 5 years)
20 lb. Meats	(dried, 18 months)
10 to 30 lb. Fruit/vegetables	(dried, 2 to 3 years)
60 lb. Sweeteners	(sugar, honey, syrups, etc., indefinite)
40 lb. Fats/oils	(butter, nut butters, natural cooking oils, etc., 2 to 3 years) Note: Hydrogenated processed oils are Not nutritive
20 lb. Sprout seeds	(alfalfa, all whole grains, beans, lentils, cabbage, radish,
broccoli, etc.	(2 to 3 years)
1 lb. Leavenings	(yeast, culture samples can be kept reproducing indefinitely)
5 lb. Salt	(despite its OVERUSE in present society, it becomes critical in the absence of processed foods, indefinite)

If you are considering the MRE (Meal Ready to Eat) option, they come in boxes of 12 meals, (H,W,D) 9 1/4" x 11 x 16 1/2. For a year for each person you're looking at 92 boxes, a stack 16" deep, 5 foot high, 16 foot wide. If you put your stack against an outer wall, it will provide additional insulation, which, if you will permit an opinion from someone who has eaten MRE's, (and not cared for them) insulation may be their best use. To store enough for a multi generation family home, you need a room 14' x 16'.

If you prefer working up a food storage program around food your family normally eats, look up in nutrition (diet) guides the calories per pound, and volume per pound for your selected food items, and run you own calculations on how much you need to store. Some examples of calories of "common" food items are in the "FACTOID" appendix.

Most foods can be safely and adequately stored using sun powered drying. If you have air-tight containers (even clay) an additional layer of protection is afforded by vacuum packaging.

Throughout history there are stories of storing food in covered pits, that remained fresh for months, if not years. When without all else, dig a hole, line it with dry grass, twigs, leaves, etc., and stack you food inside such that air can circulate around it. Then seal the top.

"Old time" food storage was in root cellars. When your power fails, you may have in the form of your old fridge or freezer a pre-made container to bury, cover with insulation material, and instant "root cellar".

If you are doing fermentation, such as for alcohol, consider bubbling the CO₂ into the food storage container.

 

LOW TECHNOLOGY EVAPORATIVE REFRIGERATION

Set up a large container, such as a clay pot, or other porous material, with a small water tight container inside, and the space between filled with sand or perlite, kept moist. The evaporative cooling keeps the inner container well below the ambient temperature.

 

CHEMICAL FERTILIZER GARDENING

I include this under "food storage" because I consider it just as temporary and unsustainable of a measure as storing from the abundance of chemically grown food.
Readily available and cheap (at the moment) are the typical plastic "kitchen" garbage bags, I think they're something like 14 gallon bags. I suggest 2,000 bags and enough fertilizer for 2,000 plants for one season. "Miracle Grow" (tradename) and other chemical fertilizers are also cheap for the moment.

Put bluntly, dig a hole, line it with the trash bag, backfill with local soil, bio waste, etc., and fertilize per instructions on the container. You're NOT creating a sustainable food bed, but you will grow an emergency crop. (Add your daily humanure if you're inclined and have determined the safety.)

SPROUTING

This natural process decreases the carbohydrate content, and greatly increases the vitamin and protein content, as well as increasing the volume and mass of many food seed, i.e. the bag of dried beans in your storage program. (Tomato or potato sprouts are poisonous, as all seeds treated with fungicides, etc.)

 

PROTEIN NEEDS

The human diet needs 53 to 58 grams of protein per day (.47 gram per kilogram, or .213 gram per lb., of body weight) consisting of 22 essential amino acids. 8 of these cannot be manufactured by the human body, and must be present in the right [16] proportions.

A diet incomplete in protein leads to various physical infirmities (think of the photos of third world children, skin and bone, but with gas bloated abdomens). Regardless of a surplus of any given amino, the ability of the body to utilize the proteins is limited by the absence of any of the 8 that is not present in sufficient quantity. The excess are utilized by the body as mere carbohydrates.

Eggs are essentially complete. Most meats are complete. While present feedlot production "wastes" higher quality foods that are used as animal feed, chickens, cows, goats, etc. can feed on forage, turning unused/compost material into essential protein. (Ruminants, such as cows, don't need the protein and grains in their diets that they are fed in feedlots. They do however need nitrogen materials, which they convert to protein.)

 

PROTEIN COMPLEMENTATION

Appropriate combinations of plant materials can result in a meal that has a complete protein matrix.

Product	Serving	Protein	Calorie	Carbohydrates
Mung	1 cup dry	49 gram	718	130
Soybean	1 cup dry	68 gram	774	56
Peanut raw	1 cup dry	38 gram	828	24
Sunflower	1 cup dry	33 gram	821	27

Soybean and Mung, and some peanuts approximate meat in completeness. (Please note the other nutritional factors for these)

Sunflower seeds contain greater growth promotion nutrition than does meat.

Rice is missing Isoleucine & Lysine, but if served in combination with cheese, or most beans, becomes a complete protein.

 

PIT OR UNDERGROUND GREENHOUSE

Earth sheltering provides a more stable climate for human habitation and for your garden. You may even go as far as an underground greenhouse, which provides you greatly enhanced ability to control the growing conditions.

Relatively recent developments in natural lighting provide an opportunity to bring natural light into spaces not practical before. Examine "Solartubes" (mentioned later also), which can route sunlight thru a relatively small opening. Some versions have flexible tubing for the light, lending it to bends / curves for routing thru even thick shielding materials. It should be possible, for example, to route the tubes from the roof of a single story home, down to the basement.

 

UNDERGROUND INSPIRATION

The Forestiere Underground Gardens in north Fresno, CA is a complex of underground rooms and garden courts that was the home of Baldasare Forestiere. The sections are inter-connected by underground passageways and promenades. These passageways contain planters and a wide variety of plants.

Working alone he carved out columns, arches and domes from the local hardpan sedimentary stone. Some ceilings have skylights, normally open for easily covered with glass.

He had a wide variety of trees, some growing as deep as 22 feet below ground level. There is a fish pond in the garden court off the kitchen and bedrooms.

His work of nearly forty years, without blueprints or plans, stands as a monument to what one determined person can achieve.

 

ENGINEERING INSPIRATION

The Zhaoxian bridge in China spans a 115 foot arch over a river. This bridge is built of formed and interlinked stone and has been standing an in essentially constant use since the year 610.

21,000 BC	–	boomerang use case painting in Poland
18,000 BC	–	flint arrowheads, Spain
15,000 BC	–	drawing of bridled horse
8,000 BC	–	domesticated peas/lentils
7,000 BC	–	domesticated sheep/goats
4,000 BC	–	irrigation canals, S. Russia
2,500 BC	–	300' wide x 37' high dam
2,000 BC	–	glass
700 BC	–	banking with mortgages
600 BC	–	silver plated copper coin
100 AD	–	hand powered double acting fire pump

 

URBAN INSPIRATION

The Dervaes family has, instead of waiting for politicians, or big-business to present a solution, have made the decision, and put forth the effort to make their urban home in Pasadena, California a micro homestead. (Who says you have to head for the hills). They present their story as the “Path to Freedom”, with ongoing updates at their website [17].

 

EXPEDIENT PLANT SHELTERING

Short of a high-tech greenhouse buried in the basement, a simple pit, covered with an appropriate clear or translucent material, can serve to provide area for growing food well into freezing weather.

GREENHOUSE COVERINGS

Glass, plastic, mirrors, etc. can be selective surfaces, passing only the frequency and intensity of light needed for optimum growth. There are some indications that small cells of "dead air", even without an air tight membrane, can serve as a greenhouse to increase temperatures for plant growth. Think of shiny shade cloth.

If you have time and resources to have specialty structures constructed, great. If not, improvise SOMETHING. Use the glass from picture frames from the wall over individual holes…

 

CROP SELECTION

Perennial crops offer no-till (do you like digging?) growth of food. Do your research now as to "native" or other crops appropriate for your climate for edible landscaping, and for your garden, containers, greenhouse, or more, depending on your resources.

Despite farming's focus on a limited number of crops, there are thousands of edible plants. See www.echonet.org as a good resource for plant listings. See also The Land Institute, http://www.landinstitute.org/, which is doing significant work on perennial food crops, eliminating tilling.

 

PHYSICAL PRIORITY IV – SHELTER

A naked exposed human is a physically ill-equipped animal. We need the technological achievements our minds have provided.

 

CLOTHING

Your personal portable shelter from the environment. Forget fashion, which is an affectation of the consumer economy.

What raw material is readily available in your area, or can you readily grow?

What is the most durable material available (that you're willing to use)? I keep reading that hemp makes the most durable cloth available, but I have no experience with it. The hemp products I've seen in stores did not appear to have any special properties, and new hemp hats were coming apart on the shelves.

What is practical and effective for your local climate?

What can be made and maintained with appropriate technology?

 

EARTH SHELTERING

The temperature of the earth at a depth of approximately 20 feet is essentially stable at the annual average surface temperature. A home at that depth would probably not need any mechanical HVAC, as it only needs to remove the body heat of the human occupants and that generated by the activities, but it would not have much of a view. It can though be well lighted.

The technical aspects of correct earth sheltering are explained well by John Hait in his book "Passive Annual Heat Storage". The techniques will improve the feel of even a traditional home, but works best in homes specifically built to take maximum advantage of the buffering.

The greatest source of energy on earth is the sun, which appears to travel a fixed pattern in the sky that is readily estimated. To maximize the benefits of shade, or of solar collection, the suns pattern of movement must be taken into account.

If your roof is exposed, consider from R 70 to R 100 in your ceiling.

To artificially "lower" your home, insulate the ground for 20 feet out around your home with three layers, separated by heavy plastic sheets for waterproofing, of "Dow Blue Styrofoam", white styrofoam board, or other appropriate insulation, then carefully cover the insulation with dirt, sand, gravel, etc to protect it from weathering.

Low-tech/natural insulation layers, such as grass, leaves, etc., with some waterproofing means or even layered with a high clay soil will help, but eventually need to be replaced. Berming earth up the sides of the home provides additional protection from the large temperature changes of open air. Even the roof can if you chose have a layer of earth on top of the insulation. The soil need only be thick enough for the plants grown there.

An obvious heat storage medium is water, which pound for pound will hold more than dirt or concrete. Jars, tanks, in or above ground pools, etc. Whether you simply carry the jars in/out each day/night, or have moveable covers on your pool, or a pipe and pump system, it's just a matter of setting up a means where the water is heated by the sun, or exposed to the night sky for cooling by radiation.

 

EARTH TUBES

A low energy method (after they are buried) to tap the stable ground temperature for a surface home are buried pipes. The typical approach is horizontal trenching, with pipes of a size to allow reasonable air flow.

Consider though a pipe leading straight down into the ground (as in a shallow, perhaps driven well) 20 to 30 feet. This avoids the need to disturb large surface areas, and the dig & backfill of horizontal trenches. Any appropriate method of routing water down and back up in a sealed system (i.e. a small pipe inside a larger pipe) can allow a transfer of temperature to/from the depth.

Each pipe can be expected to heat/cool the ground in a 3 to 4 foot diameter circle, therefore space the "wells" 3 feet apart. When the surface is significantly cooler than the bottom, a natural thermosyphon should occur. With appropriate manifolds and valves, warmed or chilled water can be pumped from/to collectors/radiators or circulated in a hydronic system of pipe embedded in a concrete floor/wall.

 

GOOD OLE GLASS

Equator-facing windows, vertical or angled to be 90 degrees to the noon sun in the winter, or skylights can provide significant passive solar heating in the winter while minimizing glass exposed to summer sun. (In the summer, the sun rises and sets NORTH of the East/West glass alignment, and the glass can be shaded on the outside.) Summer solar gain can further be avoided by almost any approach that provides a well-ventilated shade area about a foot from the main structure.

 

DAYLIGHTING

Conventional skylights admit too much heat in the summer, and require a large opening in the structure of your home, that siphons your winter heat. More diffused and useful light is admitted, with less heat, by "lighttubes", essentially mirrored pipe with a lens cover on each end. Venting can be separately done with insulated pipe with removable caps.

The combined opening in the structure is much smaller, the risk of weather damage is less, and maintenance is less. A firm in Europe is producing panels to channel light in via fiber optic cables, allowing greatly enhanced flexibility in placement of the "collector" and the inside light emitter. Solar tubes, fiber optics, etc. also offer a means for nighttime interior lighting of separate/private rooms by one central light source.

The are other options which have potential for development not only as lighting, but heating, cooling, and power, and crops in a controlled environment. An appropriately designed light scoop, facing the equator, should admit light in the winter, yet block the summer heat.

 

FIREPLACE

An interior fireplace must have an external air source. Since the fireplace is probably only used when it is cool outside, arrange the air source such that it draws from the pantry, which would then be vented to the outside, cooling the pantry. Consider a fireplace in a "sunken" family room. Water filled pipes around the fireplace, and in the higher floor of the rest of the house could provide auxiliary heat by thermosyphon.

Note, a fireplace assumes you've got a sustainable source of something to burn. How large of a forest do you own? Is a fireplace sustainably practical? Wood has on an average around 5,000 BTU per pound.

Note, every square yard perpendicular to the sun receives every hour 3,412 BTU. Therefore one pound of wood equates to a pane of glass 44 inches on a side exposed to the sun for one hour. Assume an average wood with a specific density of .5, or a weight of about 32 pounds per cubic foot.

A cord of wood is 128 cubic feet (4' x 4' x 8'). The above averages therefore puts the weight of a cord at around 4,096 pounds, containing 20,480,000 BTU.

A cord of wood is potentially a sustainable harvest from 1/2 to 1 acre, grown over a period of a year.

At the best yield of 2 cord per acre per year, it's 40,960,000 BTU per acre per year.

If we assume an average of 6 hours per day, 360 days per year, the BTU stored by the best cord wood yield from an acre of trees represents the daily sunlight heat potential of around 5 1/2 square yards, or a square area of glass just over 7 foot on a side.

Assume use of flat panel collectors to raise water temperature from 70 degrees F to 100 degrees F. Each BTU represents a one degree temperature increase in one pound (1 pint) of water. The above collection area receives 112,596 BTU during the day, and would need an insulated tank of at least 470 gallons. This is a volume of say 060 cubic feet - Think of a cube 4 foot on a side.
Direct solar collection, if you have a system to use and store it, is arguably over 800 times as "efficient" a method of collecting and storing solar heat as growing firewood.

Grow wood for building material. Grow wood as a fuel to use in creating a long-term useful item, such as glass. If essential, grow wood as an emergency fuel, but PLEASE, don't plan on wood heat as your primary home heat source.

 

SOLAR WELL

Along a similar line of thought to putting the fireplace in a pit, consider wells or pits facing the south winter sun. Glass covered, reflector lined, essentially Winston cones. At the bottom, a solar collector, a coil of pipe, or a large tank. We now have, during the day, on the bottom, an intensely hot tank of water. Pipes run "up" to the floor of the house, in a thermo siphon, capable of keeping the floor warm, without a powered pump. A simple valve would be the only required moving mechanical part, to shut the system down when desired.

 

SKY HEAT EXCHANGERS

Roof / external mounted tube collectors, flat or with reflector concentrators, can heat water during the day, or cool water during the night. Cooling can be enhanced by misting or water evaporation. Used for cooling, the circulating water might "thermo siphon". The same principle that helps make the elsewhere mentioned atmospheric condensers work, cooling by sky radiation, also provides a means of cooling a large mass, to store “coolness” for warm weather daytime use.

Even during the day, when the sky is clear, the right combination of shading from direct sun, insulation from side heat sources, and in particular orientation of the radiator to the “coolest” area of the sky, can lower temperatures of such radiator to below the ambient air temperature. Experiments report the ability to radiate 100 to 200 BTU per hour per square foot. The radiation frequency is 8 to 13 um, so you're looking for a glazing material transparent in that range. (Try polyethylene)

 

STRUCTURE BASICS

In the end, ANY system that provides you a waterproof living space that is heavily insulated, has extensive thermal mass or other thermal storage, and a practical means to get heat into and out of the storage can provide a comfortable home.

 

STRUCTURE UTILITIES – ENERGY

Frankly, to survive as more than a "dirt farming peasant", you need a power source beyond human or animal muscle, that does NOT rely on fuel, or power delivered from some unseen and uncertain source. See Appropriate Technology in the appendices. Unless we suddenly leap to "STAR TREK" technology, the future energy picture will be one of greatly reduced personal energy use. Run wiring capable of handling separate a/c and d/c loads. What do you REALLY need to operate?

 

ELECTRICAL NEEDS

Long distance communications, computers, other electronics, etc. NEED electricity. While humanity USES electricity for many other purposes, many uses could be handled by other means. Why would anyone NEED to generate electricity, to spin and heat an electric dryer, when hanging wet clothes in a sunlit space would also dry the clothes, and perhaps the drips water the plants?

Even refrigeration CAN be driven directly from a windmill or waterwheel. Ice can be made using a solar concentrator or by applying a hand-pumped vacuum to a container of water. Low levels of locally produced electricity CAN provide the power to maintain a technological, learning and developing society. A "typical" American household has access to 22 kilowatt (110 v with 200 amp service) 24/7.

Check your own bill, and see what your real time use has been. Can you reliably generate that much power? Then you must be prepared to buy the power (hoping someone else manages to generate it), or reduce your power usage to what you can generate.

 

POWER OPTIONS

The prime energy source on earth is the sun. It powers the photosynthesis process in plants, creating the energy supply for all animal life. It is readily concentrated into a limited area with simple mirrors or other reflective/convective surfaces. With technology we understand, and can produce today, we can produce electricity from the sun by:
Turning generators with moving wind, caused by the sun (natural, and artificially induced wind up what is essentially a smokestack) Power is intermittent.

Turning generators with moving water, caused by the sun (natural, and artificially induced means to move water to a higher location, or from a pressurized container.) Power can be constant and regulated. Most naturally occurring cases of water in a high gravity location have already been exploited.

Where tanks can be positioned at significant differences in altitude (i.e. 100'+) water pumped to the higher tank can serve as a battery, turning a generator when dropped again thru a turbine. Think outside the box… Can you modify a turbocharger from a car to serve as the driving turbine in a micro-hydro generator?

Factors:

1kw = 1.3 hp
Water flow in cubic feet/second x height difference in feet divided by 8.8 = hp
1 cubic foot = 7.48 gallon
Assume a two 10,000 gallon tank, one 100' higher than the other. To generate 1kw of power
1kw = 1.3hp = flow/second x 100 / 8.8
1.3 x 8.8 = flow x 100
11.44 = flow x 100
11.44 / 100 = flow
.1144 cubic feet = flow
.1144 cubic feet = .856 gallon/second
10,000 gallon tank / .856 = 11,682 seconds / 60 / 60 = 3.24 hours of operation for this "battery".

Given the above, consider a well where the water level is more than 100 feet below the surface. A surface tank could be the size of a modest “above ground” swimming pool. A small windmill could easily during the day fill the pool, providing the evenings power for light and electronics.

Turning generators with "steam" engines (water and other medium, open and closed cycle) Power can be relatively constant and regulated by using the sun to heat a storage medium, such as water in an insulated tank, which then provides power at night.

In example, since closed cycle heat engines are driven by a difference in temperature, as the outdoors cools at night, and the contents of an insulated tank remain warm, the power available may actually increase. Light concentration can DRAMATICALLY increase available power. The "steam" can also be heated by growing, collecting, and burning bio-fuels.

Open cycle. The working fluid, which is heated to the boiling point, is channeled to expand and push a contained piston or turbine, then vented to the atmosphere. The typical working fluid is water, which may in some locations be too scarce a resource to "waste" as steam. This engine design also "wastes" the energy used to heat the water up to the steam point.

Closed cycle. The working fluid, which is heated to the boiling point, is channeled to expand and push a contained piston or turbine, then routed to a condenser for cooling below the boiling point, and then pumped back into the heating chamber. In theory (Carnot) the efficiency of a heat engine is limited to nc = T1(hot gas temp)-T2(cool gas temp) / T1.

Historically, low temperature solar engines are operated using freon or butane, in with temperatures of 80 C. In a low technology situation though, it may be necessary to use only "natural" mediums. (Perhaps water in a closed system that operates partially in a vacuum, so that water boils at a lower temperature.)

Food for thought. As shown by the closed cycle engine, the useable work is done by the change of state from liquid to gas, not the rise in temperature to the boiling state. Open cycle engines (think of the old steam engines) lose ALL of this initial heating energy. Closed cycle engines retain a significant portion, but must still clearly cool the medium before re-injection to the vaporization chamber. Rather than directly using steam to turn a generator, I've wondered about using steam to pressurize a tank of water (insulated from the water some way?) then using the water to spin a micro-hydro system.

Solar photo-voltaic. Direct conversion of light to electricity. The present silicon crystal panels remain a "high tech" item to produce, are fragile, and essentially impossible to repair in a low-tech environment. Power is ONLY supplied when light shines directly on the panel. Light concentration is likely to overheat the panel, and cause it to "burn out". Estimating a 1/4 acre homestead of around 10,000 sq. ft., at around 1 kw per sq. yd, while in full sun the entire lot receives just over 1,000 kw of power. If covered with 10% efficient solar panels, you'd have 100 kw available during sun hours. (But, no space to grow plants.) Set aside 8,000 sq. ft. for your garden, and using 2,000 sq. ft. for power, with the 10% panels you have available the same 22 kw you do now, but only during sunny days.

Remember the sun's changing path, combined with the panel putting out the greatest power when perpendicular to the sunlight, means you will probably want a "tracking" mount.

Solar collecter spacing. An east / west swing from sunrise to sunset of only 120 degrees appears to require side to side spacing between each device, at each extreme of arm swing, of at least the width of the collector surface. To track, the device pivot has got to compensate for the latitude of the site, then the tracker must be adjustable on the pivot to compensate for the slow change of the seasons…

If each device was just fixed re seasons, say at 30 degrees, there is still a minimum of 1/2 of the collector panel width between each device on the north/south axis to avoid shading. So to be able to optimize panel exposure, each 1 square yard panel needs a ground footprint of 9' x 9' or 81 square feet. For your homestead, the good news would be that your plants can grow around the tracking mount.

Keep in mind though the cost of 222 panels, at 100 watt each, necessary to generate this much daytime power. At this writing, p/v panels cost in general $5.00 for each watt generated. Therefore, you're looking at a cost of somewhat over $100,000.00 Do you think you might settle for say 2 kilowatt of electricity, at a little over $10,000.00?

 

INTERNAL COMBUSTION

Bio-fuels can be burned in internal combustion engines, for propulsion or generation. This is not however an efficient means of providing a conversion from sunlight to motion or electricity. Bio fuels can also be burned to produce heat. But remember that to produce around 60 gallons of biodiesel, you need to shift an acre of cropland from producing food to fuel.

Biodigester. Animal excreta, food and crop scraps, etc. are placed in a sealed tank (can be as simple as one drum upside down inside another slightly larger drum) for controlled environment rotting. Most of the gas produced, primarily methane accumulates in the upper upside down drum, where it can be lead off in hoses for use as a fuel. Using human excreta only the "minimum" for a practical useable produce would be input from 15 people. For a practical "village built" system the upper limit appears to be 300 people.

 

CHEMICAL REACTIONS

Should you find yourself with large quantities of refined metals, guidance for creating large expedient batteries is found in "How to Recycle Scrap Metal into Electricity", by John Hait.

 

AETHER / ZERO POINT RADIATION / SCIENCE FICTION

There are ongoing experiments on theories whereby at least heat, if not electrical energy itself, can be obtained from "sub atomic" activity, that may or may not be "radioactive" in nature. There are numerous "conspiracy theories" floating around that there are already successful devices in operation. A particular example is retired Colonel Beardon, who has been issued a patent for an electrical generator, that has no outside input, or internal moving parts. Lacking evidence, or the ability to buy a device, or "guaranteed"